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In an Extreme AI Scenario, GDP Could Be Up to 32% Higher
According to Anthropic's three scenarios, the U.S. GDP could rise to $44.4 trillion by 2030, which is 32.4% higher without AI. In the extreme model, the labor market shrinks by 21.5%, while wages for knowledge workers fall by 11.5%.
According to an article presenting Anthropic's three scenarios, in the "modest" scenario the impact of AI would be similar to that of the internet: GDP would rise to $34.1 trillion in 2030, which is only 1.6% higher without AI. Unemployment would barely change.
In the "significant" scenario, AI would already significantly automate work processes: GDP would grow to $36.3 trillion, exceeding the no‑AI level by 8.3%. Annual growth could rise as high as 5.4%, but employment in knowledge‑based occupations would decline by about 4%.
In the "extreme" scenario AI takes over tasks at a rate of 30%, and productivity doubles. GDP would climb to $44.4 trillion, which is 32.4% higher without AI, while annual growth could surge to as much as 15%. At the same time employment would fall by 21.5%, and wages for knowledge workers would drop by 11.5%.
The article highlights that the economic surplus created by AI will increasingly go to those who own the technology and computing capacity. Average wages would rise, but wages for physical labor would increase by 33.6%, while wages for knowledge workers would decline.
Overall, AI could make America richer in all three scenarios, but significant transformations of the labor market and income distribution are expected.
Source: https://hvg.hu/tudomany/20260925_anthropic-modellek-az-ai-hatasa-az-usa-gazdasagara